Understanding AVs: What they are, how they work, & what the future holds

What is an autonomous vehicle?

An autonomous vehicle is one in which at least some aspects of a safety-critical control function (such as steering, acceleration, or braking) occur without direct driver input. AVs use a variety of technologies, including radar, lidar, ultrasonic sensors, GPS, cameras, and artificial intelligence to navigate surroundings.

Autonomy isn't an all-or-nothing proposition. In 2016, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration adopted AV terminology created by the Society of Automotive Engineers that specifies 6 levels of vehicle automation:

• Level 0 (no automation)
  The driver performs all driving tasks and is responsible for monitoring the environment.
  Example: Most cars made before 2012.

• Level 1 (driver assistance)
  The vehicle is mainly controlled by the driver, but autonomous features may assist with steering or speed, though not both functions simultaneously.
  Examples: Adaptive cruise control, automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assist. Offered on less than 25% of vehicles in 2012, Level 1 features were optional or standard equipment on more than 60% of 2017 vehicles.

• Level 2 (partial automation)
  In some situations, automated systems may assist with both speed and steering. The driver must remain engaged with driving and continue to monitor the environment.
  Examples: Mercedes-Benz Intelligent Drive, Tesla Autopilot, Volvo Pilot Assist.

• Level 3 (conditional automation)
  In certain situations, the automated system can carry out all parts of the driving task and monitor the driving environment, but the human driver must be ready to take control when requested. For example, if the vehicle determines a collision is imminent, it will warn the driver to take control in an effort to prevent a crash or reduce its impact. However, some automakers—Ford, for example—believe it's unrealistic to expect humans to safely retake control of a vehicle, so they're skipping Level 3 and going to Level 4.
  Examples: None currently available.

• Level 4 (high automation)
  Under certain conditions, the automated system can perform all driving functions even if a driver does not respond to requests to intervene. The driver can still control the system manually.
  Examples: None currently available.

• Level 5 (full automation)
  The automated system can perform all driving tasks under all conditions. This is an ideal state and a "moving target." If it's achievable, automakers don't want to expend time and money on human-operated controls.
  Examples: None currently available; however, in late 2017, Waymo (formerly Google's driverless car division) was employing a fleet of 600 Chrysler Pacifica hybrid minivans with the goal of achieving Level 5 capability.

How do autonomous vehicles work?

What companies are working on driverless cars?

An increasing number of vehicles are available with advanced driver-assistance systems such as adaptive cruise control, automatic emergency braking, blind-spot monitoring, and lane-keeping assist. These systems are the foundation for the levels of autonomy described above. AV is developing at an unprecedented rate, and not just among automakers. Tech firms and software companies including Apple, Intel, and Waymo are involved, as are automotive suppliers like Bosch and Delphi and ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft.

Some of these companies, such as Lyft, are developing software and partnering with a variety of automakers that will build the AVs. Others are building their own complete cars—hardware and software. Many companies are investing in or forming what might seem on the surface as unlikely connections, such as Waymo's partnership with Avis. 

Hundreds of companies are getting in on the action, for one simple reason: If AVs are genuinely the future of mobility, there's a potential multibillion-dollar market for this technology, which could also change our models regarding transportation and mobility. 

It's likely that the first areas where we'll see autonomous technology are commercial ventures, such as food and package delivery, ride-hailing services, various types of trucking, shuttle transportation around university and industrial campuses, and so on, rather than private passenger cars. Here's what's happening with some major players in the AV arena:

Audi
By 2020-2021, Audi says it plans to introduce a Level 4 Highway Pilot feature, which offers hands-free driving at posted limited-access-highway speeds, enabling the vehicle to execute lane changes and pass cars autonomously. 

Cadillac
Cadillac's Super Cruise provides hands-free driving at highway speeds on divided highways without intersections. Super Cruise debuted in 2017 on the company's 2018 CT6 sedan. Drivers must still be engaged; a camera and infrared scanners determine if a driver isn't paying sufficient attention.

When could the future of autonomous vehicles look like?

Many of the companies working on AVs expect to have limited numbers of Level 4 cars capable of autonomously driving without human input in limited situations by the early 2020s. Many technological hurdles remain, such as driving in low-visibility weather, and it will take years of research before Level 5 vehicles capable of handling all situations could become available. One estimate comes from Loup Ventures, a venture capital firm that predicts growing demand for Level 4 and Level 5 AVs starting in 2028 and that most vehicles sold will be Level 4 or Level 5 AVs by the mid-2030s.¹

AVs may bring substantial positive changes to vehicle travel. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, human error is responsible for 94% of traffic collisions, which over the past decade have resulted, on average, in about 35,000 deaths, millions of injuries, and billions of dollars in economic losses annually. Experts estimate that connected and automated vehicles could prevent up to 80% of vehicle crashes, particularly those caused by distraction, inattention, and drunken or drugged driving.

Similarly, AVs could make travel more comfortable, productive, and efficient. As one example, the traffic from Americans' daily commutes could be reduced through AVs traveling safely and predictably a few feet from one another at relatively uniform speeds. People could find themselves enjoying free time to relax, sleep, get a jump on the day's activities, or talk with other passengers on their way to work. New ride-sharing business models will likely emerge, too, giving segments of the population—minors, people with disabilities, people who don't have a driver's license, and those who don't have a car—increased mobility options.